Ocean and coastal areas host key ecosystem services (ES) that sustain a wide range of blue economy activities and human settlements worldwide. Tourism is among these activities, showing an increasing trend in the Mediterranean and Southern Europe, particularly in coastal areas, which attract a high volume of visitors. In fact, coastal tourism has been identified as one of the five priorities of the European Union (EU) Blue Growth Strategy.

In 2022, Portugal experienced a nominal increase of 72.7% in the Gross Value Added generated by Tourism (GVAGT) compared to 2021, with revenues accounting for 12.2% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with the most significant increase (96%) occurring in coastal areas. However, the intense pressure from tourism and other human activities on coastal areas can contribute to the degradation of marine ecosystems and services, potentially leading to significant consequences for destinations. Research has revealed that tourists may alter their decision-making regarding coastal destinations if the quality of marine and coastal habitats is negatively impacted. In the current scenario where the Portuguese economy relies significantly on tourism on one hand, and faces the challenges of the climate crisis on the other, it becomes essential to assess the risks posed to national tourism by climate change and extreme weather events, particularly when combined with other existing environmental stressors.
Tourism strongly relies on ecosystem services. Provisioning services provide food, water, and energy, among other essentials; regulating services play a vital role as ecosystems regulate weather patterns, which is pivotal in tourists’ destination selection. Likewise, many tourist activities are situated in regions prone to natural hazards like floods or hurricanes. Ecosystem services may considerably decrease risks from natural hazards by enhancing coastal protection. Additionally, cultural ecosystem services are paramount for visitor satisfaction providing aesthetic appreciation, recreational activities, or spiritual and religious experiences.
Food web models account for both structural aspects, such as biomass, and functional components, such as energy flows between ecological groups. Consequently, they provide valuable insights into ecosystem functioning [9], being able to account for direct and indirect effects on the food web, which are then reflected on ecosystem services.
Results from food web modelling allow the direct measurement of certain ecosystem services (e.g., food provisioning from fishing) and enable the evaluation of ecosystem properties that are interconnected with ecosystem services. For example, there is a strong and positive correlation between the resilience of ecosystem services and the robustness of the food web [10]. Additionally, ecological resilience, which indicates the ecosystem’s capacity to sustain its initial state and provide ecosystem services despite external influences, can be assessed through metrics such as Average Path Length (APL), Finn Cycling Index (FCI), Mean Trophic Level (MTL), Total Transfer Efficiency (TTE), and Ascendency (A), among others [11].
Therefore, by examining the interplay between food web modelling, ecosystem services, and tourism, the objective of the SHIFT-MARES project is to predict the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events, as well as other anthropogenic pressures, on coastal tourism in Portugal. This will involve assessing the ecosystem services associated with coastal tourism by comparing present conditions with future scenarios. Given the one-year timeframe, the project will focus on a pivotal coastal area for national tourism, the Ria Formosa lagoon situated in the Algarve region. The project implementation will involve collaboration with stakeholders from the public sector. Some of these stakeholders expressed their support to the project (APA, ICNF, municipality of Olhão) and, along with others, will be consulted during the project.
The project’s outcomes, including a policy brief, a technical report, and a participatory workshop, will significantly aid decision-making regarding the adaptation and resilience of the Ria Formosa lagoon to climate change and extreme weather events, in combination with other existing environmental stressors. Once calibrated for the Ria Formosa, the same methodology can be applied to other coastal and marine areas in Portugal.
The accomplishments of the SHIFT-MARES project fully align with the National Strategy for the Sea 2021-2030 (integrated sustainable management of coastal and marine areas), the EU Blue Growth Strategy (sustainable tourism), EU Biodiversity Strategy (reversing the degradation of ecosystems, resilience to climate change impacts), Mission STARFISH: Restore Our Ocean and Waters (zero pollution, revamping governance), and the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 2030 Agenda (SDGs 8, 13 & 14).